Competing claims for China”s economic resources must be constrained over the next decades in order to secure a significantly better standard of living for the nation”s growing population. So concludes this discussion of the economic consequences and future implications of past and projected population growth in China, a developing country with the world”s largest labor force. The author briefly summarizes the economic consequences of China”s population growth over the past 30 years and comments on the current position in which the Chinese find themselves. Government policies seeking to maximize industrial output, rather than employment, per unit of capital placed the major burden for absorbing the growing labor force squarely upon the agricultural sector from 1957 to 1975. Although employment was found for most, much of the work done added little if anything to output. Thus, although average annual per capita production was greater in the 1970″s than in the 1950″s, it is questionable whether this remains true after subtracting the cost of inputs. Using data from a World Bank study, the author projects population growth (ranging from 1.2% to 1.6% per year) and the number of new entrants to the labor force (ranging from 1.8% to 2.4% per year) through the year 2000. In assessing the economic implications of these projections, the author concludes that population pressure will require the Chinese to revert to less efficient, labor-intensive policies or face serious and growing unemployment. As for consumption, the growth of total output should provide a small but steady annual increase in the standard of living; the growth in agricultural (3.5%) output will be relatively higher and that of light and heavy industry (7% and 9% respectively) lower than in the past. Increases in availability of food grains, however, will be less impressive. To achieve production targets, the author foresees increased “non-official” production, the increasing use of imported technology, continued modernization of the military, and greater use of material incentives. A 13-item bibliography (1957-81) is appended.
