Cereal crop harvests in the Sahel are projected to range from average to better-than-average during 1989/90. This pre-harvest report on cereal production monitors eight Sahelian countries – Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Sudan, and Ethiopia – to determine whether emergency food assistance will be required in the region. Cummulative rains are the third best since 1970; however, localized production problems persist in each country. While desert locusts will cause no significant crop harm, the extent of grasshooper damage to the harvest remains to be seen. In seven of the countries, high levels of grain stocks from an excellent 1988/89 harvest will help cover food needs. Mauritanian cereal production prospects are good to excellent, though questions remain concerning the impact of civil disturbances and grasshopper infestations on food production. In Mali, good to excellent cereal production prospects coupled with carry-over stocks may cause problems of oversupply. A slight cereal deficit in Burkina Faso is expected to be covered by programmed food aid and in-country stocks. In Niger, though carry-over stocks remain, economic and cultural constraints on cereal marketing and late grasshopper damage may spur a government request for emergency assistance. Ample cereal stocks in Chad have covered reduced levels of production and influenced a drop in cereal prices and an increase in livestock herds. Sudan”s consumption needs should be covered by combined cereal production, programmed food aid, and carry-over stocks, and aside from scheduled relief activities in the country”s southern region, no new emergency food aid is envisioned. In contrast to these countries, Ethiopia has a severe and immediate need for emergency food assistance in the northern part of the country. Approximately 1.7 million people in Eritrea and Tigray will require over 250,000 metric tons of assistance over the next year.
