In Madagascar, as with many other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth contrasts with limited increases in agricultural productivity. This unfortunate situation encourages the conversion of fragile lands to agricultural production, often destroying tropical forests that contain unique plant and animal species or areas that serve valuable ecosystem functions. Herein lies an issue of concern to Madagascar — how can it increase agricultural yields, provide employment opportunities for a growing population, and, simultaneously, reduce pressures on fragile ecosystems? No study can provide a single answer to this question, but this study examines one important facet of the issue: can the intensification of rice production in two rice-producing zones, around Lac Alaotra and Morovoay — two areas that typically produce more rice than is consumed locally — produce enough rice and employ enough people between 1992 and 2007 to meet anticipated needs for rice and employment opportunities without requiring the conversion of ecologically fragile lands to crop production? To address this question, five- and fifteen-year scenarios are developed for Morovoay and Lac Alaotra. Within these scenarios, the likely impacts of reasonable but optimistic technological changes on rice production and agricultural employment are examined. The analysis suggests two key conclusions. First, modest but important increases in rice production could be expected from the increased application of existing and emerging technologies; unfortunately, these increases in production will not be enough to satisfy expected increases in demand from domestic consumers. Second, increases in employment associated with increased rice production will likewise be modest, even considering multiplier effects. Indeed, the increased employment opportunities will not be sufficient to employ permanently the additional growth in the labor force that can be expected with current rates of population growth. (Author abstract)
