1987-88 CIMMYT world wheat facts and trends -- the wheat revolution revisited : recent trends and future challenges

This trend, along with future prospects for wheat production, is examined in this report. Part 1 summarizes changes in cereal production since 1948, emphasizing the dramatic increase in Third World wheat production over the past decade. Also discussed are the major factors influencing wheat yields (i.e., moisture regimes, the spread of semidwarf wheats, and fertilizers); case studies from Pakistan and China illustrate some of the trends described in the report. An overview of the global situation is presented in Part 2, covering wheat production in developing and industrialized countries, wheat utilization, global trade and stocks, and trends in wheat and fertilizer prices and freight rates. The effect of the 1988 North American drought on the world wheat economy is also discussed. Finally, Part 3 presents statistical data on 41 issues related to wheat production, consumption, trade, and prices in major countries and regions. The study suggests that to the year 2000 the rate of increase in wheat production will be considerably slower than in the past, making it uncertain whether current levels of self-sufficiency can be maintained, especially in the main wheat-producing countries of Asia. Strategies to increase yields will have to rely less on improved varieties, fertilizer, and irrigation and more on increased efficiency of input use and improved crop management.