Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy

The country has transitioned to a more stable environment, with the Afghan security forces taking the lead in security responsibility throughout the country. The United States and its partner countries are in the process of transitioning to a smaller post-2014 mission, consisting mostly of training the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF). The number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan has been reduced from a peak of about 100,000 in June 2011 to approximately 30,000. President Obama announced in May 2014 that the United States plans to keep 9,800 U.S. forces in Afghanistan during 2015, shrinking to 4,900 mostly in Kabul and at Bagram Airfield during 2016. The post-2016 force is to be several hundred military personnel, under U.S. Embassy authority. The post-2014 force was contingent on Afghanistan's signing a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States, which was signed on September 30, 2014. Afghanistan's stability is at risk from weak and corrupt Afghan governance and insurgent safe havens in Pakistan. U.S. and partner country anti-corruption efforts in Afghanistan have yielded few concrete results, although the new President, Ashraf Ghani, has taken steps to prioritize anti-corruption issues. A negotiated settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban and other insurgent groups could potentially benefit stability, but experts remain concerned that such a settlement might produce compromises with the Taliban that erode human rights. The United States and other donors continue to fund development projects in Afghanistan, but increasingly delegate implementation to the Afghan government. U.S. officials assert that Afghanistan might be able to exploit vast mineral resources to prevent a major recession as international donors scale back their involvement. Persuading Afghanistan's neighbors, particularly Pakistan, to support Afghanistan's stability has shown some modest success. Even if economic development and investment continue, Afghanistan will remain dependent on foreign aid for many years. Through the end of FY2013, the United States provided nearly $93 billion in assistance to Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban, of which more than $56 billion has been to equip and train Afghan forces. The appropriated U.S. aid for FY2014 is over $6.1 billion, including $4.7 billion to train and equip the ANSF, and the FY2015 request is about $5.7 billion. These figures do not include funds for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan. Administration officials have pledged to Afghanistan that economic aid requests for Afghanistan are likely to continue roughly at recent levels (about $1.5 billion per year) through at least FY2017.