Agricultural research impact assessment : the case of maize technology adoption in Southern Mali

Historically, maize has remained a very minor part of the total research effort. Major emphasis has been on varietal selection, initially focusing on linkages with French-operated research stations in West Africa, and more recently linkages with regional and international centers/networks, including the International Wheat and Maize Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the Semi-Arid Food Grains Research and Development Project (SAFGRAD), and the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA). During the 1980s there was also a strong emphasis on the development of maize-based intercropping technology, in particular maize-late millet intercropping. The initiative to promote improved maize was taken by the cotton parastatal, the Compagme Malienne pour le D veloppement des Textiles (CMDT), in response to chronic food deficits during the mid-1970s. The CMDT promoted a sole maize package consisting of an improved local variety, identified during the period of the colonial administration, and a set of husbandry practices (time of planting, planting density, fertilization) based on research findings generated in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Cote d"Ivoire. Additional varieties were released over time, including a streak-resistant variety from IITA. Adoption of the improved maize package was particularly rapid during the period 1980-86 when an attractive guaranteed price was offered and extension activities were reinforced by a maize project that included the establishment of a seed multiplication program. Following cereal market price liberalization in 1986, maize prices fell and have been subject to considerable variability. Area has continued to expand, but farmers have greatly reduced fertilizer use, switched back to maize-late millet intercropping, and substituted early maturing varieties better suited to their own food security needs. The estimated internal rate of return (IRR) to investment in maize research and extension in southern Mali over the period 1969-90 is 135%. This high rate can be attributed to low research costs (much of the technical package was borrowed from research conducted elsewhere in West Africa), and the high economic value of maize as an import substitute. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the IRR is robust with respect to adverse changes in assumptions concerning overvaluation of the exchange rate, research costs, extension costs, and area of improved maize. It is moderately sensitive to price and yield reductions. The high IRR achieved in the past to a focussed, integrated maize technology delivery system is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Market opportunities beyond assuring food security during the "hungry season" are limited due to the lack of low-cost processing technologies. (Author abstract)