Analysis of the efficiency of health measures to raise the probability of infant and toddler survival in developing countries; progress report, Jan. 1978

DURATION: September 1976-ongoing. DEVELOPMENTS: Direct assessments are provided of health interventions designed to raise the probability of child survival in a specific locality. The techniques developed are intended to have general application to an analysis of the cost effectiveness of alternative health programs. Although the infant mortality problem involves a nonlinear optimization problem, the approach used to obtain an optimum solution parallels that used in a linear optimization program. The optimization problem thus results in four distinct phases of the project; the development of the model of the process by which infants and toddlers are exposed to mortality risks and strategies to alter the process; specification of the parameters of the model either through direct estimation or as the result of a survey of medical and public health professionals regarding the impact of alternative health interventions on infant mortality; estimation of the cost of alternative health interventions, an assessment of available resources, and the specification of baseline epidemiological and demographic data; and the choice of a simulation or non-linear optimization procedure to determine the set of interventions which are most cost effective in raising the probability of child survival given the design of the model and the estimated effectiveness of interventions. At present the optimization procedure is functioning effectively with a segment of the model and a subset of the interventions. It is anticipated that the optimization procedure will be ready for application by the summer of 1978.