Bangladesh : enterprise policy reform project, employment/small enterprise policy planning subproject -- joint interim evaluation

Phase I, financed by the Enterprise Policy Reform Project, was to include an economic census, institutionalization of an annual economic survey, and a survey of household and cottage industries. Phase II, financed through a buy-in to the centrally funded Employment and Enterprises Policy Analysis Project, was to provide an economic advisor, along with short-term TA to conduct studies leading to policy recommendations. Evaluation covered the period 9/85-3/88. The activity has had mixed results. All components of Phase I have experienced delays, while disagreements have arisen between Phase I and II personnel about the content and availability of Phase I data. In Phase I, the coverage of the census was a bit disappointing (91% for households and 85% for businesses), but delays in census processing and optical mark reader procurement are more troubling. Production of an annual economic survey based on census data has had to be postponed at least one year. It is believed, however, that the economic census will achieve its major purpose of serving as a sampling frame for economic units throughout Bangladesh. Phase II activities have only just begun. The Phase II economic advisor has performed well despite a lack of logistical support and legal recognition by the GOB. The advisor"s work has helped build the analytical capacity of the Bureau of Statistics" Planning Commission by providing technical advice on the Fourth Five-Year Plan, a social accounting matrix, and a computable general equilibrium model. Given the constraints imposed by delays in Phase I data, it is recommended that USAID/B consider modifying the schedule of the Phase II economic advisor to better assist the Planning Commission in economic/statistical modeling activities. Also, a consensus on the workplan among Phase I and Phase II, Mission, and Planning Commission/GOB personnel is essential to the progress of both phases. USAID/B should encourage the GOB to formally recognize Phase II as an activity of the Planning Commission; this will enable the Phase II advisor to gain legal standing in his advisement work. In addition, an expansion of the Phase I Survey of Household and Cottage Industries from 1 month to 12 months would provide more accurate data.