Battelle project in Honduras

Evaluation covers the period ending 9/81, is based on site interviews with project staff, and is attached to a special evaluation (PD-AAJ-063) and three other trip reports. After considerable delay, Phase I activities are nearly complete in Honduras. The Central Regional Center for Population in Bogota, Colombia has assisted the Honduran Government's National Planning Council (CONSUPLANE) to develop and apply the SERES (System for the Study of Social Relations, Economics, and Demographics) model. Although the model has been used to assess the impact of public expenditures and demographic growth on socioeconomic development and the demand for social services, its utility has been impeded by staff turnovers, poor demographic data, and lack of easily accessible technical assistance. Moreover, because SERES did not become operational until 1979 and because CONSUPLANE has had little influence since the military government was installed, there have been few opportunities to demonstrate the model's usefulness in policymaking or budgeting. Nonetheless, most A.I.D. and CONSUPLANE staff agree that the model can be of great use, depending on the effectiveness of CONSUPLANE's presentation of SERES to other ministries. As yet, no formal presentations have been made, but there are plans to give several informed presentations in the short time remaining in Phase I of the PDP project, with a national seminar planned for 7/81 receiving high priority. The evaluators conclude that because the RAPID model -- which uses gross relationships to show that rapid population growth is detrimental to economic development -- is less analytical than SERES, presentations of RAPID are not warranted. Further, given the lack of demographers, the poor quality of demographic data, and the limited amount of ongoing population research, it is recommended that the contractor, Battelle Memorial Institute, not implement any core project activities in Honduras under Phase II of the PDP project.