CEPPS/IFES Quarterly Report: October 1 – December 31, 2014

Despite the deteriorating security situation, IFES provided the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) with analytical information and technical expertise in Information Technology (IT), Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and the implementation of a new continuous voter registration (CVR) system. IFES also supported IHEC in strategic and communication planning processes, held workshops, and provided operational assistance. One significant achievement was the finalization and publication of the IHEC Strategic Plan 2012-2017, which is now publicly accessible on the IHEC website. The plan outlines the objectives and timeline for establishing a sustainable public outreach infrastructure at IHEC and provides tools for maintaining a transparent and truthful presence in the media. Additionally, the opening of the IHEC Electoral Education Institute paved the way for offering educational and training materials and specific training programs to different electoral stakeholders. Security issues and budgetary constraints remain a major challenge to building long-term, sustainable infrastructure at IHEC. However, IHEC remains committed to its long-term mission as an institution of transparency in the implementation of elections in Iraq. IFES' experience suggests that IHEC is dedicated to its mission despite the challenges. The security situation in Iraq continued to deteriorate during the reporting period, with the Islamic State (IS) forces targeting the Government of Iraq (GoI) and the international community. The United States sent helicopters into combat against IS targets, and Australian jets conducted their first combat mission over Iraq as part of the international effort to combat the IS militants. The United Nations (UN) Security Council urged the international community to support Iraq and its government against the IS and groups associated with it. The IS campaign in Iraq shifted course in November 2014, with the IS losing control of three key strongholds in Iraq. Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the international coalition contested the IS control of Kobane in northern Syria. The IS continues to conduct offensives, with three ongoing combat fronts between the IS and the ISF, Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, and the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) that include Iraqi Shi'a militias. The IS suffered tactical military defeats during the period, including the breaking of the lengthy siege of Mount Sinjar and the freeing of hundreds of trapped Yazidi. The IS also faced increasing levels of insurgency from groups hostile to them in and outside the city of Mosul. The group mounted a series of mass murders against its own members for treachery or cowardice. As of the end of December, the IS consolidated its core strength, attacking vulnerable areas and posturing for new territorial gains. The raised intensity of the ground war in Iraq limits the IS to some extent, a condition which the IS will likely try to reverse. The IS's strategic culture depends on seizing and holding the offensive, and if it loses the offensive in battle, it may attempt to regain it by other means, such as opening new fronts in Syria. The attack by an alleged IS supporter at a shop in Sydney, Australia on December 15, 2014 has raised fears of the international spread of the IS. The IS has publicly and frequently encouraged attacks against the West, and since its declaration of the Caliphate in July 2014, the IS has instructed supporters in the West who cannot perform hijrah, or emigration to Iraq and Syria, to remain in place and organize. In Iraq, despite a stall in the IS advance following targeted airstrikes by the coalition forces supporting the GoI, the conflict seems far from over. The violence has triggered a humanitarian tragedy, with more than 2.1 million internally displaced people and countless casualties among the civilian population. The Government of Iraq has taken measures to control an increasingly lawless situation in Baghdad by allowing Iraqi Shi'a militias and criminal networks to have freedom of movement. The political situation in Iraq remained unstable during the reporting period. The Council of Representatives (CoR) voted to install a new cabinet to form the government of new Iraqi Prime Minister (PM) Haidar Al-Abadi. However, the vote for the new cabinet did not include the important positions of Minister of Defense or Minister of Interior. After weeks of negotiations, the CoR approved a Defense Minister and Interior Minister, with Mohammed Salem al-Ghabban, a member of the Badr Organization, a Shiite political group that controls a militia fighting the IS, appointed as Interior Minister.