Consequences of agricultural mechanization

Internal AID/W evaluation is based on file review and discussion with project managers. Despite initial delays, all objectives were attained, mostly at far higher levels than targeted. The production, income, employment, and equity impacts of AM have been thoroughly documented in over 100 studies and numerous other reports (vs. a target of 2). Major findings are as follows. (1) Mini-tractors (MT"s) and power tillers (PT"s) increase not production, but rather the productivity of other inputs such as land, labor, and fertilizer. Low-lift pumps (LLP"s) and tubewells (TW"s), on the other hand, directly increase both yields and cropping intensity. Grain threshers (GT"s) and dryers decrease postharvest losses and lengthen grain storage life. (2) MT"s, PT"s, GT"s, and dryers are labor-displacing, increasing seasonal unemployment in some areas and evening out seasonal demand for labor in others. TW"s and LLP"s increase employment by increasing production, especially during the dry season and in rainfed areas. (3) MT"s and PT"s yield marginal returns on capital investment, and are profitable only where custom work is practiced and farm size relatively large. GT"s, dryers, LLP"s, and TW"s are generally profitable. (4) In general, AM widens the income gap between rural and urban areas. In some cases, it promotes unequal distribution of land ownership and hastens the transition of farmers from tenancy to hired labor status. Policy targets were basically met. The Philippine government has created an agency to develop guidelines on the manufacture, use, and extension of agricultural machinery, Indonesian policy has changed from anti-AM to selective AM, and Thailand has included AM provisions in its 5-year development plan. Far surpassing targets, the project trained 36 M.Sc."s and 5 Ph.D."s, as well as 79 LDC scientists and economists and 7 Agricultural Development Council associates participating in the project, and held 8 workshops and a conference. An unplanned achievement was the development of a methodology that uses standard mathematical and statistical procedures to isolate the impact of AM and of alternative AM policies. Given the difficulty of launching a full-blown research program using identical methodologies under the varying environments of the participating LDC"s (Pakistan was effectively lost as a research site), in hindsight it would have been better to begin the project on a pilot basis and gradually refine and expand it. It would also have been better had funds and time permitted the final evaluation to be conducted on-site. The project"s remarkable success may be due more to the effort made by its principal actors than to its design.