Demographic change in sub-Saharan Africa

The papers discuss: (1) fertility levels, differentials, and trends; (2) proximate determinants of fertility; (3) marriage ages; (4) child mortality; (5) adult mortality; (6) internal migration, urbanization, and population distribution; (7) international migration; and (8) models for estimating the demographic consequences of the AIDS epidemic. In each case, the focus is on describing demographic trends, not explaining them. The data show there is no doubt that a second stage of demographic transition is beginning in some African countries, where fertility is starting to fall, though the future remains uncertain, especially because of AIDS. In this volatile situation, continuing emphasis on data collection, and especially on regular censuses and sample surveys on specific topics, is essential. Continued support of data analysis and of demographic research centers in the region should also be given priority.