Economics of forestry information : case studies in Central America

THE AUTHOR THEN CONDUCTED FIELD WORK IN GUATEMALA, COSTA RICA, AND COLOMBIA, DURING WHICH HE ATTEMPTED TO RELATE THE THEORETICAL MODELS TO THE ACTUAL DECISION MAKING PERFORMED BY REAL-WORLD ADMINISTRATORS (25 DECISION MAKERS IN SIX CASE STUDIES). THE FIELD WORK DEMONSTRATED THAT THE THEORETICAL MODELS WERE OF NO PRACTICAL USE WHATSOEVER. THEN, IN A MOVE THAT TRANSCENDED THE FREQUENT DISSERTATION EXERCISED IN UNREALITIES, THE AUTHOR RATHER CAREFULLY ANALYZED WHY THE THEORETICAL MODELS, AND THE LITERATURE UPON WHICH THEY WERE BASED, HAD VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH THE REAL-WORLD BEHAVIOR OF THE ADMINISTRATORS WHOSE DECISIONS THE MODELS WERE SUPPOSED TO SIMULATE AND EXPLAIN. A FIRST OBSTACLE TO USE OF THE MODELS WAS THAT THEY WERE BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ADMINISTRATORS MAKE RATIONAL CHOICES CONCERNING WHAT INFORMATION TO GATHER, AND THEN BASE RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS UPON DECISIONS REACHED AFTER EVALUATION OF THE INFORMATION OBTAINED. IN REALITY, SAYS THE AUTHOR, THE REVERSE IS TRUE; THE DECISIONS ARE NOT MADE SOLEY ON THE BASIS OF ACHIEVING THE OSTENSIBLE GOALS OF THE ORGANIZATION. MAINTENANCE AND GROWTH OF THE ORGANIZATION ARE EVIDENTLY ORGANIZATIONAL GOALS IN AND OF THEMSELVES. THESE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE STATED GOALS OF THE ORGANIZATION (AND THE INFORMATION NEEDS RELATED TO THOSE STATED GOALS). A THIRD OBSTACLE RELATES TO A LACK OF TRADEOFFS BETWEEN MULTIPLE GOALS. THE THEORETICAL MODELS ASSUMED THAT ORGANIZATIONAL GOALS HAD BEEN WELL DEFINED, AND THAT TRADEOFFS BETWEEN MULTIPLE GOALS WERE WELL UNDERSTOOD. A FOURTH OBSTACLE CONCERNS THE FACT THAT OFTEN INFORMATION ACTIVITIES ARE CARRIED OUT HABITUALLY, AS A MATTER OF COURSE, WITH NO CONSCIOUS CONSIDERATION OF WHY THEY ARE CONDUCTED BY THE ORGANIZATION. A FIFTH OBSTACLE IS THE REQUIREMENT FOR A CONSISTENT AND EXPLICIT EXPRESSION OF RISK AVERSION. SEVERAL OTHER RATHER TECHNICAL OBSTACLES ARE DISCUSSED. THE AUTHOR CONCLUDES THAT NO QUANTITATIVE MODEL CAN OPTIMIZE THE DESIGN OF INFORMATION PROJECTS IN REAL-WORLD SITUATIONS, BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT ONE SHOULD DISMISS THE THEORETICAL BASE UPON WHICH SUCH A MODEL WOULD REST. UNDERSTANDING OF THAT THEORY WILL FOCUS ATTENTION ON DESIGNING INFORMATION PROJECTS WELL.