Evaluation : impact evaluation of the municipal climate change strategies pilot in Macedonia

The IE also tested whether and how participatory processes between local government, civil society, and citizens that focus on strengthening local resiliency to climate change can strengthen civic activism, intra-community engagement, and social cohesion. The IE used a mixed-methods approach with a quasi-experimental design and case studies. The quasiexperimental design matched comparable non-MCCS municipalities to each of eight MCCS treatment municipalities, and compared changes in outcomes of interest among households within these municipalities using propensity score matching with a difference-in-differences estimation model. To provide greater context and depth to the quantitative findings, particularly regarding intra-communityengagement and social cohesion, the evaluation included in-depth case studies of four treatment municipalities. Overall, the evaluation concluded that MCCS had a significant and positive impact on treatment municipality residents vis-à-vis their (1) general awareness of climate change, (2) overall awareness of the local impacts of climate change, and (3) overall awareness of the global impacts of climate change. MCCS did not, with a few exceptions, have a significant and positive impact on (1) awareness of the specific impacts of climate change, (2) attitudes toward climate change, (3) actions to improve adaptation to climate change, (4) actions to mitigate climate change, (5) attitudes toward civic activism, (6) levels of civic activism, (7) attitudes toward intra-community engagement, (8) levels of intra-community engagement, (9) attitudes toward social cohesion, or (10) levels of social cohesion. The lack of positive impact may be due to factors including (1) weaknesses in the activity design, particularly its theory of change, (2) political polarization in pilot municipalities, which MCCS could not overcome (in part due to weaknesses in its theory of change), (3) institutional weaknesses inherent in Macedonia’s system of municipal government, and (4) issues related to activity implementation.