Evaluation of the rice production project in Guinea-Bissau

External evaluation covers the period 8/80-5/87. The principal development innovation tested was the use of tractors to construct contour dikes. This technology can have immediate and obvious impact on increasing rice production in bas-fonds. However, insufficient data are available to determine whether contour diking is sustainable or viable from economic and sociological perspectives. Other water management techniques, such as animal traction to create contour dikes, labor-intensive contour diking, construction of catchments, and use of low-lift pumps utilizing surface water for rice production, were not sufficiently tested. Therefore, the implications of using these techniques cannot be determined. No scientifically based agronomic packages were developed to extend to the farmers. There is serious doubt about the sustainability of the Credit Union with departure of the TA team from Aurora Associates, Inc. Moreover, the Extension Unit will have a difficult time surviving the departure of the team given the lack of financial support it receives from the Government of Guinea-Bissau (GOGB). The Hydrology Unit, on the other hand, is well established, and if adequate financial support is forthcoming from the GOGB for operational costs, this unit can continue to function. The availability of agricultural inputs was a major feature attracting farmers to participate in the Rice Production Project. However, GOGB macroeconomic policies make implementation of an agricultural input provision program extremely difficult. The Aurora Team was justified in moving the project's agricultural supply system away from credit and toward reliance on cash sales. Until the GOGB eliminates or drastically reduces the subsidies on agricultural inputs, it will be difficult to institutionalize a self-sustaining input supply system. The Aurora Team performed in a highly satisfactory fashion. However, its effectiveness was severely constrained by the difficult working environment, the lack of support from USAID/GB, the short time horizon in which it was directed to achieve heroic institutional objectives, and the lack of short-term technical resources to support the project. The GOGB is attempting to introduce wide-ranging modifications in economic policy in an effort to correct market distortions and encourage agricultural production. Some increases in cereals production have already been obtained. Increased supplies of agricultural commodities and consumer goods have begun to appear on the market. It is hoped that the far-reaching changes now being negotiated will have an even greater effect in the long run. There is reason for cautious optimism concerning the economic setting for project implementation. It is critical that A.I.D. pursue policy dialogue to build a better development environment. The GOGB wants USG development assistance and is prepared to take the steps necessary to obtain it. The evaluation recommends a bridge activity that would have the Aurora team continue for 12 months to consolidate the modest institutional gains to date, until a follow-on is initiated. (Author abstract)