Evolving food gaps in the Middle East/North Africa : prospects and policy implications

This report analyzes the trends in food consumption, production, and trade during the periods 1966-73 and 1973-80, as well as future prospects, among countries that export: oil (Algeria, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Saudi Arabia); labor (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, the two Yemen republics); and food (Afghanistan, Cyprus, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey). Only in the last-named group has food production kept pace with demand; however, efforts have been centered on wheat production at the expense of coarse grains used for livestock feed. Policies to encourage coarse grain production, especially of barley and sorghum, are recommended as a way to meet the rising demand for animal feed, narrow the grain gap, and promote greater complementarities in livestock production. The proximity of the food-producing to the oil- and labor-exporting countries could enhance the comparative advantage of food exports to the latter and help alleviate concerns about food security in the region. A 77-item bibliography (1976-85) is appended.