Final report : interim evaluation of the famine early warning system (FEWS II)

There is strong general agreement that FEWS should continue. Early Warning (EW) should not be delegated outside of the Africa Bureau at this time. Principal findings and conclusions are as follows. (1) FEWS has provided important and timely contributions to decision-making, thus enhancing USAID"s response capability, effectiveness, and impact. (2) According to key USAID decision-makers, FEWS has paid for itself many times over in terms of the value of decisions made. (3) USAID staff are in general agreement on the importance of famine early warning and of the need for requisite information and analysis; previous doubts are gone. (4) There is strong Agency-wide agreement that early warning efforts should continue. (5) Progress on other FEWS objectives, especially the development of host country early warning capabilities, and international coordination on EW methods, has been uneven, due to a lack of funding or a clearcut strategy. (6) There has been insufficient interaction and coordination among AFR/TR and the two key implementing agencies, particularly on R&D questions. Project management has made strong efforts to remedy this, with notable results. Notwithstanding the accomplishments noted above, improvements are needed in the following key areas: (1) coordination of implementing agencies; (2) focus of FEWS R&D (e.g., upon EW accuracy and related objectives); (3) efficiency and cost- effectiveness in reporting, analysis, and research; and (4) understanding of EW methods among USAID Washington and field staff. USAID should immediately appoint a project officer, a position which has been vacant for about two months, and address these issues. Principal recommendations for the next phase of the project include the following. (1) There should be a follow-on project to FEWS II; EW is a task that USAID should continue. Three options are presented: continuation and improvement; greater efficiency and reduced funding; expansion of project objectives. (2) There is an immediate need to plan and schedule the design, review, and implementation of FEWS III. (3) EW should not be delegated at this time; during design, however, options for enhanced host country EW capabilities and donor coordination should be explored, possibly leading to shared responsibilities during the next phase. (4) If FEWS R&D objectives are expanded under the third option above, careful consideration should be given to their conceptualization. (Author abstract)