Food needs assessment : Zaire

This report looks at the food supply of Zaire, focusing on 10 commodities -- maize, rice, wheat, millet/sorghum, pulses, cassava, yams, plantains, and sweet and Irish potatoes. The total food deficit calculated for Zaire in 1989 (in milled terms) is approximately 453,486 metric tons (mt), or 13.5 kilograms per capita. While Zaire"s domestic production and commercial food imports provide 93% and 2% of the total consumption needs, respectively, a negative balance of 341,309 mt or 6% of the total consumption needs remains. Gross production of the 10 major commodities is estimated at 19.7 million mt, a slight increase over the previous year"s harvest, but not attaining the gross production levels of the early- to mid-l98O"s, which averaged over 20.3 million mt. To estimate total available supply, gross production was adjusted downward to account for losses due to use of production for seed and other postharvest losses. The percentage of production lost to non-food use was calculated on a varying percentage basis, depending on the crop. Since l982, the Government of Zaire (GOZ) has undertaken a program aimed at removing the macroeconomic and agricultural policy factors which have constrained the development of agriculture in Zaire. The GOZ is also attempting to improve the deteriorating state of agricultural services, such as transport, research and extension, input supply, and credit. While it is too early to see the impact of these reforms, the liberalization of agricultural prices and the removal of marketing controls have served to increase real producer prices. The lack of any observable supply response from farmers is perhaps attributable to both the lack of farm-to-market roads and marketing credit. The shortage of available data for 1988 necessitated the use of the 1983-1987 data as the base period for the report. The report calculates the 1989 balance based on historical averages for all crops except for rice and maize, which were estimated using a linear equation model, and uses a simple econometric model written in SAS to predict trends for 1988-1993 in production, total available supply, supply per capita, available calories per capita, imports, and food aid. Finally, the report does not include data for existing stocks or for such commodities as peanuts, palm oil, bananas, tarrow, and other tubers. (Author abstract, modified)