Illustrative analysis : recent fertility trends in Sri Lanka

This report, based on data collected from 6,812 women under the 1975 Sri Lanka Fertility Survey (SLFS), seeks to augment earlier evidence of this trend and to study the fertility behavior of various subgroups of the population. Beginning with a critical appraisal of the quality of SLFS data, the authors express concern over the probable ommission of children born before 1960 who subsequently died, the displacement backward in time of dates of first marriage and of early births, and the exclusion of single women. The authors proceed to calculate age-specific, age-period-specific, and duration-period-specific fertility rates using the FERTRATE computer system. They then decompose the total fertility rate in terms of changes in marriage rates, changes in marital fertility, and the interaction between the two. The above analysis showed that Sri Lanka followed the typical Asian pattern of fertility decline-initial declines due to rising age at marriage, followed by a period in which the effects of nupitality and marital fertility were equal, after which falling marital fertility became most important. The overall decline, most of which occurred during 1970-75, may be attributable to Sri Lanka"s high educational and welfare standards, its ethnic and cultural diversity, and to government family planning efforts. The most important finding of the SLFS is the relatively even and synchronous nature of the decline in marital fertility across educational, occupational, and urban-rural categories, a strong contrast to Europe where there were initial lags and pronounced fertility differentials across social classes. Fertility differences in Sri Lanka are due more to religion and ethnicity. This difference may be due to the greater equality of economic and educational opportunity in Sri Lanka. The report includes 45 tables, six graphs, and a 51-item bibliography (1953-81); an overview of the vital registration system is appended.