Impact evaluation of hariyo ban ii livelihood interventions on biodiversity outcomes : baseline report

This evaluation has been designed to test the link between livelihood interventions provided as part of HBII and improved biodiversity outcomes. Data collection (4,840 household surveys, 112 community-level surveys, and 3,183 forest plot assessments) was successful, and data validation checks suggest a strong baseline for the evaluation. Baseline analysis results suggest that forests in communities receiving HBII interventions were in relatively good environmental condition and exhibited deforestation rates close to zero. Given these results and the relatively small current contribution of HBII activities to total income (7.2 percent of mean income), it might not be possible to detect HBII-related effects on forest condition (either positive or negative) at endline. However, results also show evidence for an alternative theory of change with implications for forest conservation. These include (i) Livelihood effects on reduction on forest dependence (using remittances as a proxy for large cash-incomes); (ii) Livelihood effects on potential spaces for reforestation outside of community forests; and (iii) Livelihood effects on reduced engagement with CF institutions. Key questions about conservation effects of HBII livelihood interventions, including a more detailed assessment of an alternative theory of change, could be addressed with an endline and have significant programmatic implications. Baseline results also highlight barriers to participation for poorer households, elite capture, and the exclusion of areas with restoration potential. USAID/Nepal should thus consider conducting an assessment prior to decisions about undertaking follow-on programming.