Impact evaluation of the hillside agriculture project

USAID obligations are authorized up to $10 million. Technical assistance and physical inputs for tree crops are provided to farmers in the Rio Cobre and Rio Minho watersheds through subprojects funded and supported by a central Project Management Unit. HAP has introduced technical packages which typically include farm planning, fertilizers, increased plant density, improved plant stock, pest and shade management and weed control, as well as low-cost soil conservation techniques. The aftermath of Hurricane Gilbert in 9/88 reoriented the project towards rehabilitation of trees and away from the planting of new seedlings. Cocoa and coffee figure as the two most important crops in the project, with fruit, timber, and coconut enterprises playing a lesser role. The impact of HAP on both productivity and production is clearly positive. Pre-project productivity levels of participating farmers were on the order of 8-12 boxes per acre for coffee and 6-12 boxes for cocoa, well below national average yields of about 50 boxes per acre for both coffee and cocoa. Taking 50 boxes as reasonable estimate of yields after HAP assistance, participating farmers should realize increases of 300-400% for these two crops. As of 12/91, some 4,444 farmers have received benefits from 13 subprojects. Data on farm and non-farm income, input costs, and demographic characteristics are sparse. Nevertheless, by using available information and "best guess" estimates, a 14% increase in income is a reasonable expectation for the average farm family. Up to the end of 1991, cocoa planting for all subprojects was 517 acres, cocoa resuscitation 1,949 acres, coffee planting 163 acres, and coffee resuscitation 232 acres. The net present value of incremental production forthcoming from these activities is estimated at Ja$24.2 million, evaluated in constant, 1990/91 Jamaican dollars. This is a crude estimate of the contribution of HAP to the Jamaican economy; it also is a very tentative estimate because of the previously mentioned lack of good data and because of ongoing changes in the macro economy. The project areas were chosen because they are composed of hilly, easily erodible terrain and because degradation of these lands due to agricultural practices is readily apparent. HAP has promoted both "engineering" and "agronomic" measures to reduce degradation of the environment in the targeted watersheds. Participating farmers have adopted these practices, resulting in a positive environmental impact. HAP has focused its data collection efforts on agronomic variables. Information on farmers and farm characteristics is sketchy. Physical and biological measures used to reduce soil erosion, and the measures used to manage and reduce pesticide use are the most meaningful environmental indicators; data on these measures could be extracted from administrative files or collected in sample surveys. All these types of data could be organized and entered in a management information system (MIS) for easy access, analysis, and reporting. Development of the MIS began as early as 1988, but has lagged badly. Consequently, the wealth of data already collected by the various subprojects cannot be effectively analyzed without an inordinate expenditure of time on the part of the analyst. (Author abstract)