Impact of Greater Horn of Africa initiative elements on USAID/Kenya strategic plan

The team found significant potential for instability in Kenya, given serious tensions over land tenure and use, growing economic inequality, rising population, the short-term instability associated with the early stages of a democratization process, and the easy availability of modern weapons throughout the region. The 1991-94 Rift Valley clashes were unmistakably the product of a calculated political strategy, rather than of "ancient tribal hatreds," as some had attempted to portray them. This represents a disturbing new development in Kenyan society. Tensions certainly do exist among various ethnic groups regarding the share they have received of the national pie; the clashes have demonstrated how easily such feelings can be exploited for partisan political ends. Resentment that could lead to conflict is also found among pastoralist groups that occupy a significant proportion of Kenya"s territory, including many of its border areas and areas surrounding the economically important game parks; among groups in the coastal regions; and among urban groups, where issues of social inequality and lack of services have become particularly acute. The team found much of the Mission"s proposed 1996-2000 strategic plan in the areas of Democracy and Governance (D&G), Agriculture/Business/Environment, and Health and Population to be appropriate, with continued support to Kenya"s effective programs for slowing population growth of particular importance for the future. But the plan should be modified to sharpen the D&G focus on the 1997 elections, to better define the focus of civil society support activities, and to make conflict prevention and mitigation a cross-cutting theme for all the Mission"s work, lest resources be invested in a way that actually makes matters worse (e.g., where land tenure or usage patterns are in dispute in agriculture project areas). One of the Mission"s great strengths is its extensive and longstanding network of PVO/NGO connections. NGOs are at the forefront of civil society efforts to respond to the threat of conflict in Kenya, displaying remarkable creativity and initiative, and there seems to be real promise for low-key efforts by the Mission to expand its support to their endeavors. It is suggested that a modest program of support to NGO efforts in grass-roots conflict prevention and related policy research (e.g., on land tenure issues), drawing upon existing D&G and other resources, be located within the D&G office. With respect to broader Greater Horn of Africa issues, the team recommends that food security and related issues (e.g., terms of trade for pastoralists, instability and population movements in neighboring countries, market manipulations) continue to be an important focus of Mission monitoring and attention, even in the absence of a regular P.L. 480 program; that greater effort be made to deal at a policy level with the particular strains within the pastoralist areas of the country (a cross-cutting Greater Horn theme); and that the Mission"s conflict prevention and mitigation efforts be better integrated with existing efforts by regional and national NGOs working on similar issues throughout the region (with specific suggestions being made with regard to possible contacts). It is generally agreed that, while Kenya is by no means as threatened by violent internal conflict as some of its neighbors, the possibility of such conflict is sufficient to merit concern, especially in view of Kenya"s key economic, political and logistical importance to the GHAI region; these concerns should be integrated into the Mission"s strategy. A series of low-cost initiatives, to be undertaken through NGOs and in coordination with other donors and integrated with similar efforts under way in neighboring countries, could offer real promise as a substantial contribution to Kenya and the region as a whole. (Author abstract)