Impact of USAID DG [democracy governance] programs on political change : Guatemala case study

Democracy/governance (D/G) assistance has been provided in six areas: elections administration, rule of law, legislative strengthening, human rights, civil society, and local governance. This assessment covers programs carried out from 1993 to 2002 in the last 5 of these areas, detailing their impacts as well as the internal and external factors affecting that impact. An introductory section analyzes the stages and trends of Guatemala"s political development over the same period. A number of lessons learned are detailed: (1) Sustained international pressure, combined with reliable technical and financial support for Guatemalan reformers over significant periods of time, has been a necessary condition for the progress made in Guatemalan democratization to date. (2) The consensus framework of goals for democratic development provided by the Peace Accords was very useful to Guatemalan reformers and their supporters. (3) Assistance to address post-conflict conditions had to accompany more traditional D/G programming for the latter to have a chance of succeeding. (4) Impact was greatest when USAID gave priority attention to political factors affecting progress in specific D/G sectors. (5) USAID had to work especially hard to identify and nurture capable and dedicated Guatemalan reformers with whom to cooperate. The more USAID was able to partner with trusted local reformers who could take the lead in selecting and implementing program initiatives, the more impact was achieved and sustained. (6) Very careful attention to program strategy choices by USAID and its local partners is important. (7) The availability of significant funding over several years enabled USAID/G-CAP to achieve impacts in some D/G areas. Without it, the likelihood of achieving impacts in other D/G sectors is reduced. (8) Coordination of assistance with diplomatic initiatives has magnified the impact of both. (9) Having the flexibility to modify program strategy choices in keeping with experience and changing political conditions can help improve impacts achieved. Flexible program design and contracting arrangements implemented by the Mission have been instrumental in allowing USAID/G-CAP to take advantage of reform opportunities as they arose, and to cancel programs when they failed to make progress. (10) Frequent, participatory program monitoring and evaluation is advisable, as are efforts to identify and stay abreast of basic political factors affecting democratization via democratic indicators monitoring system(DIMS)-type surveys and expert analyses by political scientists. Includes recommendations for future D/G assessments.