Model for short term agricultural price monitoring and forecasting

The model allows one to compare how prices in agricultural markets have moved in actual fact in the recent past with how they would have moved if they had followed normal seasonal patterns. This can serve as an early warning system by drawing prompt attention to abnormal movements in market prices. In addition, the model allows one to make forecasts of prices for the short-term future. The model is flexible enough that it can be applied to any agricultural crop that exhibits seasonal price patterns and can be used at the national or regional level. The only requirement is that there exist a monthly time series of past prices for the market in question and a time series for the consumer price index. No data on production, stocks, or expectations of traders are needed. The model is simple to implement, requiring about one staff person day of work per month to carry out the calculations and produce the report. This manual is divided into two chapters. The first describes the theory behind the model, while the second describes the mechanical process of generating the forecast in a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet and describes how to produce the forecast report in a suitable form. (Author abstract, modified)