NAERI/MSU AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SIMULATION : AN EVALUATION (1/28/74-2/2/74)

The objective of the project was to adapt and test the computer simulation model developed previously by MSU in Nigeria. The evaluation is based on interviews with government and MSU officials in Seoul during 1/28/74 - 2/2/74. There is a good possibility that the NAERI/MSU agricultural simulation effort will lead to a significant step forward in Korean Planning capability. At a minimum, bureau chiefs will have a tool for more easily examining alternative policies. The author questions the quality of the basic data used in constructing the model. Overly optimistic biases to official data estimates may have been more widespread than anticipated by MSU experts. This calls into question the accuracy of parameters and of model specification. Ambiguities have appeared during the many model runs, each producing slightly different and sometimes contradictory outcomes. Testing of model results, data reliability, and technical assumptions can be facilitated by expanding the forum of technical papers, seminars, etc. Regarding utilization of the model, most potential users have only a vague idea of what the simulation model is all about. As yet, there is little inclination at higher policy levels to shift to a multisectoral modeling approach. A major sales promotion effort should be made by Koreans, with consultant and training assistance from foreign donors. Greater confidence in the model itself, however, should precede greater promotion efforts. Development work on the model should continue for at least another 2 or 3 years with MSU participation. USAID should not attempt a similar effort in other LDC's at this time. This is because of the high cost involved and because other LDC's have even less reliable and extensive data. Also, a comparative evaluation should be conducted first of the Iowa State effort in Thailand and the modeling work in Mexico by the World Bank.