NORMATIVE STUDY OF THE SUPPLY RESPONSE OF RICE IN THAILAND

Thailand"s major agricultural exports include rice, rubber, tapioca products, maize, jute, and kenaf. Rice accounts for 21% of the nation"s total export revenue. This study concerns Thailand"s agricultural production potential, particularly rice. Estimates of the national model used in this study are based on historical and current conditions. Major variables determining consumption, production, and employment are discussed. The national linear programming model used in this study covers 71 changwats of Thailand, aggregrated into 19 agroeconomic zones. The price of rice is set at six different levels with solutions made for the linear programming model at each price level. Prices for other commodities are not changed. Results of the study suggest that Thai agriculture can substantially increase its rice output, even with available technologies. Utilizing the study"s highest computed prices, Thailand could export more than 4.5 million tons of nonglutinous rice, 300% more than the 1972-74 exports. This finding is of utmost importance in terms of farm income, public revenue, and foreign exchange earnings.