Patterns of urban-rural fertility differentials in developing countries : a suggested framework

In order to understand this relationship, one must first know the mechanisms which underlie urban and rural fertility behavior. This volume is the result of a project to analyze fertility patterns in order to identify how various personal, social, and environmental factors influence fertility behavior. From this, one may be able to suggest how urban and rural development projects affect fertility through their impact on these variables. The study begins with an examination of urban-rural fertility differentials which pays special attention to age-specific fertility and the effect on fertility of different city size distributions. Next, the theories that attempt to account for urban-rural variations in fertility are reviewed, concluding with the presentation of a framework to structure the relative importance of each set of factors in the fertility decision process. Four case studies (Egypt, Peru, the Philippines, and Tanzania) are then presented to show how this framework can be used to examine urban-rural, intra-urban, and intra-rural fertility differentials. Finally, the research findings are summarized. Although the project has not been able to show precisely why urban-rural fertility differences vary, the analysis suggests a number of conclusions and certain general policy recommendations. Interesting among these are the conclusions that urban fertility is lower than rural fertility and that the age pattern of childbearing and patterns of urbanization do affect fertility differentials. Also of interest is the associated recommendation that the growth and development of cities of over 100,000 persons (including encouraging migration to and integrated living situations in these cities) be supported to hasten both urban and rural fertility decline. Suggestions of areas for future research conclude this final section. Several methodological and statistical appendices, a brief glossary of terms, and a 26-page bibliography (mostly 1960s and 1970s) are also included.