Potential impact of AIDS on population and economic growth rates

Although AIDS infects the rich and poor alike, the disease is especially devastating to the poor because they lose their only source of livelihood -- their labor -- when they become ill. At the same time, they face rising health care expenses. In rural areas, the disease could affect farmers" choice of crops: for example, as labor shortages become severe, they may switch from labor-intensive tradable crops such as maize to lower-value crops such as cassava, which has repercussions for the country"s gross domestic product as well as the nutritional status of its people. This paper examines the current status of HIV/AIDS infection, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and reviews existing models that look at the future impact that the disease is likely to have on population growth and food security, especially as it spreads to rural areas. Because exploding population growth is considered by many to be the number one problem facing developing countries in the year 2020, this paper confronts the question of whether population growth kept in check by AIDS mortality might lead to greater availability of food in 2020 than would be possible in a world without AIDS. Includes references. (Author abstract)