Predicting household poverty : a methodological note with a Kenyan example

However, carrying out such surveys is expensive, especially in poor developing countries. Thus, it is important to make maximum use of the available survey data in developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where such data are expensive to collect and analyse. This paper develops a simple method for using poverty indices derived from survey data for a given year to predict poverty rates for subsequent periods without having to conduct a new household survey. We illustrate the workings of the method with data from Kenyan household surveys for 1994 and 1997. (Author abstract)