Simulation analysis of policies for the northern colombibeef cattle industry

In general, the study demonstrated that (1) the projected outcomes with the government disease control campaign were greater than under precampaign practices in the traditional herd; (2) the projected outcomes with government programs easing development loan terms were in all cases greater than the base run which assumed current credit policies; (3) the projected area in improved land and the modern cattle population with government policies benefiting both the traditional and modern operations were in all cases lower than under policies benefiting only the modern operation; (4) the projected area in improved land with the increased land tax rate was greater than the base run which assumed current land tax rates; (5) the projected outcomes with the removal of special taxes on cattle were lower than the base run which assumed no removal of these taxes; (6) given the assumptions on farmers" decisions and accounting mechanisms in the model, availability of credit for land improvement does not seem to be a serious constraint to land modernization; and (7) the projected outcomes with a flexible exchange rate suggest that this is an effective incentive to export without involving large transfers from public revenues to exporters in the form of subsidies.