The two-child norm in Indonesia

The current fertility rate suggests that these percentages will increase in subsequent generations. In fact, some provinces in Indonesia have reached or are approaching replacement level. In Yogyakarta, DKI Jakarta, Bali, East Java, and possibly North Sulawesi, the two-child average has already emerged. The two important covariates of the preference for smaller families are women"s education and women"s exposure to mass media (newspapers, television, and radio), both of which are positively and consistently associated with such preferences. Unless policy changes relax the family planning programs" strong anti-natalist policy, the goals of achieving replacement level fertility by the year 2015 and zero population growth by the year 2050 are probably not too ambitious. (Author abstract, modified)