Tools for assessing and forecasting service affordability for population

The project's main goal was to provide the National Energy and Utilities Regulation Commission with methodological and technological tools for assessing, analyzing, and forecasting the consumer's capacity to pay for utility services. The methodology for service affordability assessment and forecasting was developed in April 2015. It included the description of necessary input and output data, approaches for assessment and forecasting of paying capacity of population, formulae for calculating reliability values for main service affordability indicators, and templates for output tables and diagrams. The system for automated assessment and forecasting of service affordability for population (ASOP) was developed on the basis of the methodology. It included a logic diagram, software codes for IBM SPSS Statistics and Visual Basic, which contained algorithms for service affordability assessment and forecasting. The system was designed to help assess and forecast affordability of communal services for population within the next three years. The report was prepared by the Municipal Development Institute in the framework of execution of Subtask 1.2.3 of the USAID Municipal Energy Reform in Ukraine Project and item 5.4.2 of the Work Plan of MERP assistance to the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission. The report included two main parts: the methodology for service affordability assessment and forecasting, and the description of software for service affordability assessment and forecasting developed on the basis of the corresponding methodology. The report was prepared in collaboration with the relevant staff of the Department for Strategic Development and Planning of the National Commission. Their comments and suggestions were included into the report, particularly regarding the list of indicators for service affordability assessment, calculations, and output data forms. The future activities, as stipulated by MERP Work Plan, include assistance to the National Commission regarding the use of the software for the automated assessment and forecasting of service affordability for population. A seminar for relevant staff of the National Commission will be delivered in the framework of this activity. The system for automated assessment and forecasting of service affordability for population was designed to take into consideration living conditions of consumers, their incomes, and service consumption specificity under various tariff revision scenarios. The system was expected to provide the National Energy and Utilities Regulation Commission with the necessary tools for assessing, analyzing, and forecasting the consumer's capacity to pay for utility services. The report included a description of the necessary input and output data, approaches for assessment and forecasting of paying capacity of population, formulae for calculating reliability values for main service affordability indicators, and templates for output tables and diagrams. The system was designed to be user-friendly and to provide accurate and reliable results. The report was prepared in accordance with the MERP Work Plan and was intended to provide the National Energy and Utilities Regulation Commission with the necessary tools for assessing, analyzing, and forecasting the consumer's capacity to pay for utility services. The report was expected to contribute to the development of a more efficient and effective system for assessing and forecasting service affordability for population in Ukraine.