USAID/Kenya portfolio management review, April 1-September 30, 1994

The population and health program continues to have a major impact on the Mission"s strategic objective of reducing fertility and population growth. Analysis of the 1993 Kenya Demographic Health Surveys (KDHS) indicated that the fertility rate is now approximately 5.0% (down from 7.7% in 1984) and the 1994 population growth rate is approximately 2.7% (down from 4.1% in 1984). The Mission also has developed a good estimate of the total cost of the National Family Planning Program, in which USAID is the major donor, funding up to 60% of the program cost. This means that the impact on population growth and fertility rate decreases can be closely associated with USAID"s program. On AIDS prevention, USAID is the leading donor in condom provision. Preliminary findings from a recent analysis of condom impact suggest that increased condom use in Kenya may have averted 10,000 AIDS deaths and 140,000 HIV infections. On the negative side, USAID suspended nonproject assistance to the Ministry of Health (MOH) because of evidence that the Government of Kenya (GOK) was poorly managing program funds designated for Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH). Also USAID/Kenya, in consultation with MOH, terminated program and project assistance to the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF), shifting the remaining time and resources to the development of the private insurance sector. In the Private Enterprise sector, the Private Sector Development (PED) project continues to achieve its goal and purpose, providing assistance to a total of 23,960 firms (up from 15,700). A verification exercise on impact data was completed during the period for most implementing organizations. The preliminary analysis suggests that: (1) employment and sales in assisted firms have surpassed target by more than 50%, with most employment being generated in the micro-enterprise sector; and (2) assets surpassed target by more than 300%, contributing significantly to the Mission subgoal of increasing production employment and income. In the agriculture sector, the program continues to contribute to the development of improved technologies through Kenya Agricultural Research Institute"s (KARI) commodity research program through which: (1) ten maize cultivars are in final stage of development; and (2) five sorghum varieties, which were earlier pre-released for testing, are now ready for official release. Under the horticultural research program, introduction of plant materials of 17 new cultivars of fruit and 48 cultivars of vegetable from Holland, U.S.A. and Israel were made. In the market efficiency objective, through the Kenya Market Development Program (KMDP) the maize, bean, and minor grain markets are now fully liberalized. The implementation of the new Democracy and Governance project has commenced with execution of a Cooperative Agreement with the Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR) to support establishment of an indigenous institute for medium- and long-term policy research and analysis. Procurement of an interim project manager is in progress, and recruitment of project management personnel is expected to accelerate the pace of project implementation, especially the civil society component. The pace of negotiations with GOK regarding the signing of the project agreement for implementation of the public sector components of the project has been slow but indications are that the draft agreement is circulating within GOK offices. The Democracy and Human Right Fund (116(e)) grants continue to play a key role in the development of civil society. During the reporting period, the number of active grants was five, and the number of grants whose PACD has expired but not closed was six, all with a total funding of $532,400 provided under the DHRF since 1991.