World demand prospects for coffee in 1980, with emphasis on trade by less developed countries

Multiple linear regression analyses of coffee consumption in the importing countries during 1952-65 indicate that declines in retail price and increases in real consumer incomes at the lower- and medium-income levels positively influence per capita consumption. In importing countries with relatively high per capita income levels, saturation levels for coffee consumption are increasingly evident; however, shifts in tastes away from alternative beverages and the lowering of domestic consumer tax levels have increased coffee consumption in some countries. World coffee consumption is projected to increase 2.2 percent yearly. At this rate, projected consumption would increase about 1.1 million metric tons, increasing export earning for the less developed countries by over $860 million at 1964-66 prices. If a concentrated effort were made to expand export volume beyond the assumed equilibrium level -- for example, by 12 percent -- world coffee prices could be expected to fall 30 percent and coffee export earnings by 22 percent.