Annotated bibliography : early warning systems of political disasters

Discussions of "failed states;" the perception that USAID and other donors seemed unprepared to deal with the events in Rwanda, Somalia, Bosnia, and Haiti; the new application of chaos theory to political events; concern over the persistence and costs of ethnic conflict and "complex disasters" -- all these factors contribute to the need for USAID and other donors to examine these topics. This annotated bibliography, by examining key literature on early warning systems, is intended to contribute to this ongoing discussion. The bibliography"s four sections: (1) examine early warning systems documents that take a general, theoretical approach to the subject; (2) reviews articles that focus on issues relating to early warning systems; (3) list supporting documents that are not annotated; and (4) list the agendas from two USAID workshops on early warning systems. (Author abstract, modified)