Behind the violence : causes, consequences and the search for solutions to the war in Northern Uganda

Initially rooted in a popular rebellion against President Yoweri Museveni"s National Resistance Movement (NRM) government, the conflict has since been transformed by Joseph Kony"s Lord"s Resistance Army (LRA) into a brutally violent war in which civilians are the main victims. Over 1.4 million people have been displaced, and tens of thousands more have been killed, raped, or abducted. At first glance, the persistence of the LRA over such a long period is incomprehensible: the majority of the force is made up of kidnaped children held against their will; the LRA is extremely unpopular because of its brutality and apparent lack of an overarching political agenda; and it lacks significant natural resources to sell for arms. Indeed, the conflict has not only continued for nearly 18 years, but in 2003 spread significantly east into the Teso and Lango regions. This report examines the structural causes that underpin the war, its current dynamics, the implications of the conflict spreading further east, and ideas for resolution. The report asserts that while people living in the north have deep-rooted grievances against the current government, Kony"s LRA is a poor expression of these and enjoys no popular support. The war is thus two conflicts in one: a multi-faceted northern rebellion against the NRM government whose root causes have never been fully resolved, and a war with an LRA that does not fit conventional models of political insurgency and is motivated by an Old Testament-style apocalyptic spiritualism. In addition, the protracted nature of the war has created new conflict dynamics, with many of the war"s horrific consequences such as mass displacement, a perceived war economy, and a military response that often fails to protect communities having turned into reasons for its continuation. With the population blaming the conflicting parties for such suffering, the ensuing lack of trust has led to intense three-way tensions between the LRA, the civilian population, and the government that has compromised intelligence gathering and turned the rebels against civilians. The recent spread of the war has also raised several new issues. The government-sponsored Arrow and Rhino militias in Soroti and Lira, while protecting the populations in their regions in the short-term, is of long-term concern: the arming of over 20,000 civilians may potentially threaten the security of the country. The report concludes with general recommendations addressing the three main strands of the conflict: root causes that continue to feed grievances in northern Uganda; the LRA conflict itself; and the consequences of the war that are interpreted as ongoing causes of the war. (Author abstract, modified)