CHARM; cyclone/hurricane acceptable risk model : system description

The Cyclone/Hurricane Acceptable Risk Model (CHARM) employs a computerized decision analysis system to simplify this process and thus accelerate effective warning. This report describes the rationale of CHARM and provides a system description. After background on the need for early warning systems, the components of an ideal warning system are described and the decision analysis process integral to warning systems - the measurement of the risks accruing to alternative hazard mitigation activities - is discussed in detail. The modular design of the CHARM system, which can incorporate data sets as needed according to local events, is then described, as are the elements and data flow of the CHARM decision analysis subsystem. A list of CHARM system elements, their probable information linkages, and typical data products concludes the report.