Tropical cyclone strike and wind probability applications

For such decisions to be defensible, officials usually adhere to an official government forecast, yet some allowance for forecast error must be made. Complex relationships between errors in tropical cyclone forecast track and in the forecast wind distribution, complicated by lack of user familiarity, makes this a particularly difficult problem. This paper introduces the concept of strike and wind probability as a means of quantifying (by computer) the tropical cyclone threat, thereby allowing simultaneously for all types of errors. Such software probability products will soon be available for all the tropical cyclone areas of the world. Examples of these products and anticipated future developments are discussed. (Author abstract)