Climate change and conflict in pastoralist regions of Ethiopia : mounting challenges, emerging responses

Toward that end, USAID/CMM asked FESS to conduct case studies on climate change and conflict in selected countries, with a view to producing findings relevant to Agency and Mission interests and programs. The second of these case studies is the present study, focusing on the pastoralist regions of Ethiopia. A prior case study examined climate change and conflict linkages in Uganda (Stark 2011). This study relies in part on FESS"s Environmental Security Assessment Framework (ESAF) methodology, while integrating core components of USAID"s Conflict Assessment Framework (CAF). Both the ESAF and CAF emphasize one of the main conclusions of recent conflict analysis: Conflict is always the result of the interactions of multiple political, economic, social, historical, and cultural factors, and these must be taken into account in any analysis. The influence of climate change on conflict can only be understood within this web of relationships. From April 19, 2011 to May 5, 2011, a three-person FESS research team, with the assistance of one or (at times) two colleagues from Mercy Corps, conducted over 40 interviews and met with more than 150 persons from local community groups, civil society organizations, regional and national governments, and international organizations. Interviewees were asked about their perceptions concerning such issues as: (1) the impact of environmental and climatic change; the coping capacities and resilience of affected groups; (2) the responses of local, regional, and national governments; (3) the drivers of conflict and their linkages, if any, with climate change; (4) steps needed to address any climate-related challenges with potential conflict linkages; (5) and anticipated conflict trends with potential linkages to climate change over the next ten years. (Excerpt, modified)