Consistency framework for employment output and income distribution projections applied to Colombia

Part I describes the macroeconomic and sectoral structure of Colombia for the l950-67 period in terms of output, employment and income distribution. Part II projects these variables to 1980 within a consistent framework and under different assumptions regarding export growth and technological change. The most noteworthy findings were that unemployment is likely to increase significantly in Colombia and the income distribution to become more uneven. The maintenance of the productive and technological structure existing in the base period is likely to alter the sectoral output mix in such a way as to worsen the employment and income distribution. Technological change in agriculture may result in a small decline in absolute employment but in a less uneven income distribution than that obtained without technological change. The results of the study are compared with the "idealized" strategy which ILO formulated for Colombia. The ILO estimates of the growth rate of GDP and of labor productivity are generally higher than those obtained from the consistency framework analysis.