Demographic effects of economic reversals in sub-Saharan Africa

The effects of recent economic downturns in seven countries -- Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda -- are examined in terms of their effects on child mortality and on timing of first marriages and of first and second births. Special attention is paid to differences between urban and rural areas. The effects of poor economic conditions on child mortality are clearest in Ghana (especially in rural areas) and Nigeria (especially in urban areas). The positive association between economic conditions and the odds of marrying for the first time is quite clear in Botswana, Senegal, and Togo (especially in urban areas). The results for first births are the strongest of the results for the four demographic outcomes: in all the countries but Kenya there is a consistently positive relation to economic variation. On the other hand, results for second births are the weakest: only for Botswana, Ghana, and Uganda are there positive relations between second births and economic conditions. Nigeria stands out as the country that experienced the strongest effects of economic reversals, probably due to the dominance of one commodity, oil, in its economy. Conversely, in Kenya, which is not so dependent upon one commodity, few effects appeared. The overall conclusion is that economic downturns have had marked demographic effects in sub-Saharan Africa, as many Africans suffered the deaths of their children and made decisions to delay or forego marriage and parenthood. (Author abstract, modified)