Developing Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Tool for Kosovo

The tool is a customized modeling tool based on the Energy System Tool (EST) model, tailored to the characteristics of the Kosovar energy market. The model was calibrated using inputs provided by ERO and assumptions agreed with ERO, where data of appropriate granularity was not available. The forecasting tool was developed in accordance with the Consulting Agreement, which outlined the tasks to be carried out. Task 1 involved conducting a regulatory interview with ERO and NARUC to identify high-level expectations for the model and discuss project details. The Consultant prepared and submitted a report presenting the forecasting tool's architecture and key characteristics, including inputs, outputs, and key functionalities and processes. Task 2 involved the development of the long-term electricity demand forecasting tool, which was calibrated using the inputs provided by ERO and assumptions agreed with ERO. The model was installed in ERO's system with the support of the Consultant during the training. Task 3 involved remote assistance to ERO for collection of information, including data required to calibrate and run the forecasting tool. The Consultant prepared and sent a list of data to ERO, highlighting critical data sets, and reviewed the initial inputs provided by ERO, identifying information gaps. Task 4 involved a remote mission for finalization of the tool and training, which was carried out by Mrs. Anna Flessa and Mr. Vasilis Karakousis from Thursday 29th of October to Wednesday 4th of November. The Consultant worked closely with ERO staff to finalize the model and provided hands-on training on the model's functionalities and capabilities. A half-day workshop with stakeholders of the power sector of Kosovo was organized during the remote mission, introducing the model, its inputs/outputs, architecture, and data requirements, and discussing its functionalities and underlying assumptions. The forecasting tool has been delivered to ERO and NARUC, and it is noted that in order for the model to run, a valid GAMS license must be installed. The tool has been coded using the General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) environment and runs from a windows-based user-interface, with all input and output files being excel-based. The calibration of the model was done based on inputs and assumptions agreed with ERO, and training was provided to the ERO staff on the operation of the model during the remote technical assistance. The finalized forecasting tool has been delivered to ERO and NARUC, and it is expected to be used by ERO in coordination with Kosovo's energy sector key stakeholders to formulate annual electricity demand projections up to 2030. The tool is a customized modeling tool, based on the EST model, tailored to the characteristics of the Kosovar energy market, and it has been coded using the GAMS environment and runs from a windows-based user-interface.