Economic evaluation of the trypanosomiasis problem in Zone One

This report projects, against a background of topographical, climatic, demographic, and agricultural information, the impact of trypanosomiasis over the next 20 years on cattle in a portion of southwest Mali along the Niger river designated as Zone 1 by the New Lands Activity (NLA) -- the Malian agency responsible for tsetse research. The value of cattle lost to trypanosomiasis over the the next two decades is projected to be between MF 392,933,000 and MF 577,367,000, with an average loss per infected animal of about MF 19,500. Using these figures, the report provides a benefit-cost analysis of various strategies to combat the disease. Overall, it is clear that the costs are high relative to the benefits to be expected. Only one strategy, systematic treatment plus diagnostic support, provides a positive net value at both high and low benefit levels. Prophylaxis of work oxen and treatment of other cattle--which approximates current policy--could prove economically feasible if fully implemented. No other strategies proved profitable. In particular, two strategies--eradication of tsetse populations with cleared barriers and wet season prophylaxis for all cattle--can definitely be rejected. Eradication at a reduced cost remains possible but more information is needed on the cost of barriers to protect Zone 1. Recommendations call for the NLA to: inform the Livestock Service of the results of this report; equip the Kati field station with diagnostic equipment; conduct a study in an area where trypanosomiasis is a serious threat to production and contrast the results with those of this study; further examine the merits of Ndama, Mere, and Zebu cattle; conduct research into the course of trypanosomiasis among cattle in the field or at field stations to gather reliable morbidity and mortality statistics; and further investigate wet and dry season grazing patterns and the effect on these of tsetse clearance. A 20-item bibliography (1948-80) is appended.