EVALUATION OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC COMPONENT KOREAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR STUDY

KASS's models and demographic literature were consulted in conducting the evaluation. KASS's effort to deal with farm and non-farm, rather than rural & urban populations is deemed commendable and plausible, however its first approximtn in sector models is judged technically unsound in demographic theory and needs to incorporate sex, regional breakdowns, aging, survival, birth rates, migratn patterns, and mortality patterns. Evaluator questns KASS's: low estimate of future birth rates due to family planning (FP) efforts and later marriages; failure to distinguish variatns in birth rates in different areas of Korea; and accuracy in calculating population projections obtained by applying the Hathaway model. KASS maintains that FP between 1970 to 1985 will not effect employmt levels during this period despite evidence that fertility and labor force participatn are closely related. KASS has filed to address the problem that migratn level change when agricultural price and developmt policies change. In examining KASS's manual, evaluator questions certain assumptions made, incldg: age/sex distributn of the populatn does not effect consumptn levels; urban and farm sectors ftn independently of each other; urban populatn growth is greatest; and off-farm migratn and wages are not affected by differences between farm labor and supplies. Recommendations include the following: 1. a migration model based on investigation of Korea's various regional areas be developed; 2. KASS improve and/or develop interaction models between: size and composion of populations; size, demographic composition, and income levels; outputs of the public and private economic sectors; 3. findings of Park, Kim, and local researchers be incorporated into KASS's program; 4. a long term consultant be hired to develop a migration model; 5. the labor force question and interaction between farm and non-farm sectors be reexamined, and the effects of education on the labor force be studied; and 6. project be refunded if the above are followed.