EVALUATION OF THE GE-TEMPO PROJECT : BACKGROUND TECHNICAL REPORT

THE EVALUATION DISCUSSED: (1)COUNTRY STUDIES; (2)CONSULTANT SERVICES; (3)TRAINING; AND (4)STAFF STUDIES. UNDER THE FIRST CONTRACT AN ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL CALLED TEMPO I WAS CONSTRUCTED TO EXPLORE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. TEMPO I IS A SIMPLE, YET ADEQUATE, MODEL TO DEMONSTRATE THE IMPORTANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES IN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING. THE LIMITS OF TEMPO I, BECAUSE IT IS HIGHLY AGGREGATED AND SOMEWHAT OVERSIMPLIFIED, ARE ALSO ITS STRENGTHS SINCE BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC-ECONOMIC INTERACTIONS CAN BE DEMONSTRATED WITHOUT BEING OBSCURED BY UNDUE MODEL COMPLEXITY. SEVERAL OF THE SHORTCOMINGS OF TEMPO I WERE OVERCOME IN TEMPO II. THE TWO MAJOR USES OF TEMPO I ARE TO SHOW THAT FERTILITY DECLINE INCREASES GROWTH IN PER CAPITA INCOME OF LDC"S UNDER A WIDE VARIETY OF CIRCUMSTANCES AND TO PROVIDE INSTRUCTION OF ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTION. THE PURPOSE OF TEMPO II IS TO MAKE AVAILABLE A FLEXIBLE TOOL OF ANALYSIS WHICH MID-LEVEL GOVERNMENT PLANNERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CAN USE TO STUDY THE LONG-RANGE, COUNTRY-SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS OF ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTIONS. WHILE MARKING AN ADVANCE IN SOPHISTICATION OVER TEMPO I, THERE ARE ALSO FACTORS OPERATING WHICH TEND TO REDUCE THE USEFULNESS OF TEMPO II. THE ISSUANCE OF THE DEMOS MANUAL REPRESENTS PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION THAT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE POPULATION FIELD BY GE-TEMPO, ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF THE MANUAL. THE EVALUATOR MADE 8 SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS INCLUDING THAT THE PROGRAM SHOULD: (1)CONCENTRATE ON COUNTRY STUDIES: (2)ACCELERATE MOVEMENT OF TEMPO RESEARCH TO MICRO AND SECTORAL STUDIES; AND (3)INVOLVE LOCAL LDC PERSONNEL TO A GREATER DEGREE IN PROJECT ACTIONS AND DIRECT STUDIES EXPLICITLY TO NEEDS OF LDC OFFICIALS.