Evaluation of the Office of Population"s participating agency service agreement with the US Bureau of the Census (1989-1994)

Bureau of the Census (BUCEN), acting through its International Statistical Programs Center (ISPC) and Center for International Research (CIR), to provide training and TA to overseas demographic programs. Evaluation covers the period 4/89-8/93 against a PACD of 3/94. Overall, operations under this PASA are very well run and useful. Interviews with USAID staff and many other agencies, as well as questionnaire responses from host country central statistical organizations (CSOs) and USAID Missions, were highly favorable. The few exceptions can be traced to a lack of familiarity with the role of BUCEN. For example, some of those interviewed had a misperception that the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), rather than BUCEN, maintains the data file that appears in the PRB Data Sheet. Under a relatively small component to train foreign nationals (mostly CSO personnel) at its facilities in Upper Marlboro, Maryland, ISPC has recently revised its curriculum to break longer courses into short, self-contained modules. It is recommended that this revision be completed, to provide students a menu of short courses that best suit their needs, and that the trend toward short-term training (of a few months duration) be continued. Costs can be further cut by shifting more training to developing country sites, such as U. N. regional training centers. Under the TA component, ISPC staff make short-term trips to developing countries to work closely with their counterparts on technical issues ranging from management and training to data processing and data analysis and dissemination. This is the activity in which BUCEN holds its greatest comparative advantage, because of the high standards of the U.S. Census operations and the expertise of its staff. It is recommended that TA be expanded in the area of data analysis and dissemination and that there be some consolidation of the training and TA personnel so that both activities will be strengthened. BUCEN has developed and adapted several computer software packages. The Integrated Microcomputer Processing System (IMPS) will handle all phases of data processing for a census, from data entry and editing through tabulation. After a planned transition to a lower-level computer language (it is currently written in Cobol), this microcomputer package will not require any special compiler. Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PAS), with its accompanying manual, "Population Analysis Using Microcomputers" (PAM), is a microcomputer package that uses census and survey data to develop indirect estimates of various population rates. The manual represents a laudable collaboration with the United Nations, with whom it will soon be published jointly. It is recommended that both of these packages be further developed and augmented, particularly to facilitate spatial analysis, subnational estimates and projections, and census management. In the data analysis and dissemination component, most countries had a census in 1990 or 1991 and are now at a critical point for utilizing the data as effectively as possible. It is recommended that training and TA activities be expanded to promote this activity, with some increase in staff. CIR"s own publication series, "Population Trends," should be expanded. The possibility of a special publication through the Population Information Program should also be investigated. Most importantly, steps should be taken to make the international data base more widely accessible on CD-ROM or eventually on-line. Further recommendations are as follows. (1) BUCEN should coordinate more actively with UN organizations that perform similar functions. (2) USAID should be responsive to BUCEN initiatives, many of which will be driven by the need to make optimal use of technological advances in the coming years. BUCEN, in turn, should be more aggressive in identifying work that needs to be done and in taking proposals to USAID. If possible, BUCEN should be exempted from the priority country strategy; all countries need good census data. (3) Efforts should be continued to obtain core funding for ISPC and CIR from the Bureau of the Census. These units have the potential to provide a technical and database resource that would be helpful for international trade and investment as well as for foreign assistance. (Author abstract, modified)