Evaluation of the sub-project for technical assistance to the Government of Morocco on energy planning and policy development

Special evaluation covers the period 12/80-4/83 and is based on document review, site visits, and interviews with USAID/M, GOM, and contractor personnel. Subsequent memoranda update action. Despite a shortfall in meeting overly ambitious project targets, a good start has been made. The project has provided MEM with an Apple II Plus computer and developed an energy investment (EnVest) decisionmaking model and an associated data base. EnVest I ranks energy investment projects by their internal rate of return taking into account energy production, capital costs, and construction time. EnVest II, a simulation energy supply and demand model, calculates financial/energy variables for a given project over 20 years by 5-year increments. EnVest has not yet been used in policy making; however, several EnVest-based studies are underway. Contractor performance has been excellent and computer documentation, although incomplete, is well-written and understandable. GOM project interest/involvement has increased over the past year; a new MEM section, the cellule de planification, has been proposed as the permanent home for EnVest. Also, a 4/83 EnVest demonstration held, at MEM's urging, for 80 GOM officials was generally well-received, although some felt the model was inadequately explained. The project has failed to collect energy production data or to develop national scenarios as originally planned; however, the cellule, EnVest, and the data base should enable data collection. EnVest cannot analyze technical feasibility or social and environmental impact; nor does it include price effects or adequately analyze demand (the latter two seriously limit its use in policy making). Also, due to budgetary constraints, an inordinate amount of time has been spent creating programs when relatively inexpensive ready-made software is available. Key recommendations are to: emphasize policy analysis (vs. computer programming); upgrade computer documentation; develop an EnVest pricing model; and improve EnVest demand analysis.