Explaining Cropping Choices under Extreme Uncertainty: Evidence from Conflict Prone North Kivu, DR Congo

The level of exposure to conflict significantly influences their decisions, with households experiencing higher levels of violence adopting conflict-resilient farming practices and diversifying their crops more. This is evident in the cultivation of conflict-resistant crops, such as root crops and crops that households reported were never looted. The study found that increased exposure to social conflict increases the cultivation of conflict-resistant crops and crop diversification. Conversely, low access to markets and information, as well as the lack of contracts with buyers, reduces the cultivation of conflict-resistant crops and crop diversification. The results suggest that improving access to markets and information, as well as increasing social cohesion, can help farming households in conflict-prone agrarian societies adopt conflict-resilient farming practices. Regression analysis revealed that conflict level, market access, and contracts with buyers are significant determinants of conflict-resistant crop cultivation and crop diversification. Households with greater access to markets and information invest more in conflict-resistant farming practices and diversify more. However, households with contracts with buyers tend to grow less conflict-resistant food crops and diversify less, potentially due to the insurance provided by pre-determined contracts. The study also found that social empowerment has a mixed effect on conflict-resistant crop cultivation and crop diversification. Households with greater social empowerment grow less conflict-resistant food crops and diversify less. Further research is needed to determine the channel through which social empowerment may reduce the incentive to cultivate conflict-resistant crops or diversify more. The findings of this study have significant policy implications for improving the livelihoods of farming households in conflict-prone areas. Improving access to markets and information, as well as increasing social cohesion, can help households adopt conflict-resilient farming practices and cope better with the adverse effects of long-term conflict and social unrest.