Final evaluation of Pakistan food and security management project and midterm evaluation of technical assistance component/Pakistan agricultural sector support program

Final evaluation covers the period 1984-1991. The evaluation includes an interim assessment of the TA component of the follow- on Agricultural Sector Support Program (ASSP -- 3910492), which provides balance of payments support tied to agricultural policy reforms. Following initial delays, a combination of factors came together in the last half of the FSM project which brought remarkable institutional and policy changes and physical and managerial improvements. Policy reforms already implemented and storage facility rehabilitation are estimated to save the GOP at least Rs. 3,863 million annually. Activities in economic policy analysis have increased GOP capacity to analyze policy issues, evidenced by the creation of the Economic Wing, and produced bases for significant reforms. Research produced by the economic analysis network contributed to the termination of the ration-shop system, actions to reduce subsidies and encourage private sector participation in storage, ending of mark-up free credit, and other reforms; especially valuable were the contributions of the International Food Policy Research Institute and the Agricultural Policy and Analysis project. However, the Economic Wing needs to further increase its analytic capacity and its role in the decision-making process. Agricultural data collection has not yet produced usable national-level crop estimates; problems have included delays in applying the area frame sampling methodology (due partly to the Ministry of Defense's reluctance to allow use of aerial photos). Current plans are to produce the first provincial estimate in 1/92, and the first national survey in 7/93. More accurate crop forecasts will result in savings from more accurate estimates of storage/import levels needed to assure food security. The postharvest management component produced tangible benefits Over 578,000 tons of storage capacity were rehabilitated, which, in combination with training of managers and operators, reduced annual wheat losses by 3%; training of other managers and operators reduced losses by an additional 1%. Training has not yet been institutionalized, however. Rehabilitating existing facilities as opposed to new construction yielded a savings of Rs. 986 million in public borrowing. Research on the feasibility of bulk grain handling has been delayed, but there is a potential for a 45% increase in storage capacity, and the opportunity for private-sector manufacture of equipment. Agribusiness promotion activities have supported market-oriented GOP policies. Accomplishments include greater recognition of the role of the private sector in the policy process, establishment of an Agribusiness Cell within the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Cooperatives (MINFA), and several studies to aid in policy formulation and stimulate private investment; investments in excess of $50 million in commercial seed production, citrus processing, and edible oil/feed mills are expected. Despite the projects' successes, several deficiencies remain, including failure of MINFA's economic units to work together in cohesive, supportive way. It remains to be seen if the GOP has the ability and will to sustain all project components as a core effort to bring permanent policy reform. These lessons were learned. (1) Projects targeting policy change take relatively long to achieve results, and hence require a design that permits adjustment during implementation. (2) Economic and policy analysis units must establish both horizontal linkages with complementary organizations and vertical linkages with policymakers.