Final report : review of disaster surveillance project

External evaluation covers the period 3/84-1/85 and is based on document review, site visits, and interviews with staff and technical personnel. The project is slightly (8-10%) behind schedule in data output due to logistic and staffing problems which resulted from Bolivia"s continuing economic crisis and were not within the control of project staff. The first data available for analysis (in 1/85) represented 10 communities in 5 departments. Errors in original questionnaire design have been corrected and corresponding adjustments made in field operations. The IBM-XT microcomputer has proven generally adequate; in fact, Mission staff found the computer so useful that it has remained in the A.I.D. central offices and did not move with the project to the new project office, resulting in marked reduction of staff training and practice time. More microcomputers are on order. Suggestions for improving overall management of the data collection/analysis systems include improved documentation of requests, orders, and performance, and clearer assignment of authority and lines of responsibility. Suggestions concerning computer equipment and methodological issues are to: (1) place the project computer in the project office immediately; (2) provide additional staff to improve computer utility; (3) add computer printers, plotter, and a back-up IBM-PC to assure low-cost security for the project; (4) reduce the survey sample size to accommodate prevailing field conditions and field team capacity; (5) demonstrate some project benefit for participant villages; (6) eliminate the requirement to calculate the "hydrostatic quotient," an apparently ambiguous term; (7) investigate and experiment with remote sensing, probably the most cost-effective method of disaster surveillance; and (8) collect more basic cost information on agricultural products for use by more complex statistical processing now underway at Tulane University. An alternative surveillance system utilizing key village informants is also suggested in view of the high costs of maintaining vehicles and field teams in a failing economy.